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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-29 04:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290250 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Ida earlier this evening and found that the maximum winds were still around 90 kt. Although the peak winds appear to have leveled off for now, the minimum pressure has continued to fall and was down to 966 mb at the last pass through the center an hour or two ago. In fact, the pressure has been dropping by about 2 mb per hour based on the aircraft data. In addition, tail Doppler Radar data from the aircraft indicate that the vortex has become more symmetric and that the inner core has contracted from the mission earlier today. These are signals that Ida is poised to strengthen further, and based on recent satellite images it appears that strengthening is imminent. Flight-level and SFMR observations also indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded and there is some indication of a double-wind maximum. The tropical-storm-force winds now extend outward up to 120 n mi from the center and hurricane-force winds up to 35 n mi from the eye. Ida continues to move steadily to the northwest at about 14 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast rationale. A subtropical ridge situated near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward during the next day or two. This feature should continue to steer Ida northwestward toward the Louisiana coast. The latest runs of the numerical models bring the center of Ida to southeast or south-central Louisiana Sunday afternoon. Although landfall is not expected for about 18 hours, impacts will begin well before that time. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin overnight, therefore, all preparations to protect life and property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is just a little to the east of the previous one through landfall. After Ida moves inland, a turn to the north and then the northeast is expected as the storm moves in the flow on the northwest and north sides of the ridge. Ida remains over waters with high oceanic heat content, and in an atmospheric environment of low wind shear and abundant moisture. These conditions, combined with the improved structure of the hurricane, should allow Ida to rapidly intensify until it makes landfall. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast holds steady and brings Ida to a dangerous major hurricane prior to landfall. After the storm moves inland on Sunday, rapid weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, drier air and some increase in wind shear. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-29 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 290249 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 4 6(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 4 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 5 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 870W 34 60 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 9 44(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MOBILE AL 50 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 36 48(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GULFPORT MS 50 3 27(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GULFPORT MS 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 44 49(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) STENNIS MS 50 3 56(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) STENNIS MS 64 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BURAS LA 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 51 44(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BURAS LA 64 7 56(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) JACKSON MS 34 3 33(36) 18(54) 4(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) JACKSON MS 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 55 44(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 5 85(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 65(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 910W 34 72 10(82) X(82) X(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) GFMX 280N 910W 50 8 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 8 85(93) 4(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BATON ROUGE LA 50 2 64(66) 13(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 32(32) 13(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MORGAN CITY LA 34 26 70(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MORGAN CITY LA 50 4 71(75) 3(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 40(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 3 39(42) 16(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 74(78) 5(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) LAFAYETTE LA 50 1 27(28) 7(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 78(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) NEW IBERIA LA 50 2 33(35) 5(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 3 20(23) 9(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) FORT POLK LA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 23(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 4 20(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) CAMERON LA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 3 8(11) 4(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 7(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GALVESTON TX 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-29 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Ida was located near 27.2, -88.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-29 04:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290248 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 88.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 88.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area Sunday afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 18 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin later tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-29 04:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 380 WTNT24 KNHC 290248 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 88.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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