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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 10

2021-08-28 22:50:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282050 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 87.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 86.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)

2021-08-28 19:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Ida was located near 25.5, -86.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Ida Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2021-08-28 17:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 15:48:56 GMT

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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-28 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281457 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 The satellite presentation of Ida has continued to improve this morning with the center embedded within a fairly symmetric Central Dense Overcast and hints of the eye in both visible in infrared satellite imagery. Earlier microwave imagery revealed a well- defined low- to mid-level eye and excellent spiral banding over the northern semicircle. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft, somewhat surprisingly, have not found a significantly deepening tropical cyclone yet, but given the very recent increase in organization and structure, the winds are likely to catch up to the satellite appearance very soon. Using the latest flight-level and SFMR wind data from the aircraft and satellite intensity estimates the initial wind speed remains 75 kt for this advisory. The aircraft data does indicate that Ida's wind field has expanded, and the NHC wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Given the improved inner-core structure Ida appears poised to rapidly intensify during the next 12 to 24 hours as it remains within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm water. Although the interpolated intensity guidance has lowered somewhat due to the fact that Ida has not significantly strengthened yet, the explicit forecasts from the dynamical models continue to support significant deepening, and the latest runs of the HWRF and HMON models indicate Ida will reach Category 4 strength before landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to Category 4 strength during the next 24 hours. After that time, fluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement cycles as Ida approaches the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Ida is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night, and become a post-tropical cyclone as it moves over the Tennessee Valley by mid-week. Ida has been moving steadily northwestward or 315/14 kt. A deep layer ridge near the southeastern United States coast is forecast to shift westward during the next day or so, and this should continue to steer Ida northwestward through landfall on Sunday. The track guidance remains in remarkably good agreement through 36 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged during that time, and continues to indicate that Ida will reach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. After landfall, Ida will be near the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then northeastward as it recurves into the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance has shifted slightly westward beyond 48 hours, and the track forecast over the southern U.S. and the Tennessee Valley has been adjusted accordingly. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Wind and rainfall impacts will also penetrate inland through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today in the warning area. 3. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi, resulting in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Monday and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 24.8N 86.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 26.3N 87.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.0N 89.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 91.0W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 31.0N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0000Z 32.7N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 34.4N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z 36.8N 85.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1200Z 37.9N 79.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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