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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 19
2015-09-23 04:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230250 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 ...IDA DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 46.8W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 46.8 West. Ida is drifting toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the northeast and then toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-09-23 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230249 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 46.8W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 46.8W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 46.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 45.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 160SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 21.6N 45.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 180SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 25.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 46.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-09-23 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 230249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-22 22:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 20:36:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 20:50:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-22 22:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222036 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 The low-level center of Ida has been placed in the middle of a gyre defined by several small vortices. The cyclone is still sheared with the strongest convection located within a cyclonically- curved band to the south of the center. Given the lack of scatterometer data, and little change in the satellite presentation, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. Ida is embedded within the southern end of a mid-level trough, which is forcing the cyclone to drift east-southeastward at about 4 kt, and is also causing shear over the cyclone. The evolution of this trough will be crucial for the future of Ida. Global models indicate that Ida will drift generally eastward embedded in the trough for the next 48 hours. After that time, most of the models lift the trough out, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge. This long range forecast pattern should result in the cyclone turning toward the north-northwest as indicated in the NHC forecast, and also a decrease of the shear with favorable conditions for strengthening. Since the environment is currently quite hostile, no important change in intensity is indicated during the next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, when the cyclone becomes detached from the trough, some slight increase in strength is forecast. The NHC track forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very close to the ECMWF and GFS consensus. If the global models are correct, Ida will be meandering over the Atlantic for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 20.5N 47.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 20.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 20.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.0N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 20.5N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 22.5N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 24.5N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 26.5N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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