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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2015-09-22 04:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 220245 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2015-09-22 04:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220244 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 49.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 80SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 49.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.9N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.9N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.9N 46.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.3N 47.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 24.4N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 26.2N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-21 23:11:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 20:34:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2015 21:06:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-21 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 212034 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 Satellite data indicate that the low- and mid-level centers of Ida have become separated, with the low-level center exposed well to the northwest of the deep convection. This appears to be the result of some unanticipated mid-level shear that is occurring below the typical 200 mb outflow layer. The latest TAFB Dvorak classification and objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS support an initial intensity of 40-45 kt, and based on the earlier ASCAT data the advisory wind speed is held at 45 kt, although this could be generous. The forecast upper-level wind pattern over the next couple of days, which features continued mid-level shear along with an increase in upper-level northwesterly winds, should prevent strengthening. In fact, Ida could weaken during the next 2-3 days, and perhaps not survive as a tropical cyclone. The NHC forecast assumes that Ida will maintain tropical cyclone status, and that upper-level winds will become a little more conducive for strengthening by late in the period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still shows some increase in strength at 96 and 120 h. Ida continues to move north-northwestward, but recent visible satellite imagery suggest that the forward speed is decreasing. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The steering currents around the tropical storm are expected to weaken very soon, and Ida is expected to meander eastward or east-southeastward over the next couple of days. After that time, Ida should begin a northwestward or north-northwestward motion as a mid- to upper-level trough lifts out to the northeast. The track guidance has become quite divergent this cycle with very large spread between a faster and more eastward ECMWF solution, and a slower and more westward GFS track. For now, the official forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to the GFS ensemble mean and FSU Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 21.2N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.6N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 21.6N 48.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 21.1N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 20.8N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 21.5N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 23.0N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-09-21 22:33:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 212033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 48.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 48.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 48.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.6N 48.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 21.1N 47.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.8N 46.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 23.0N 47.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 25.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 48.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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