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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-30 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302035 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 Satellite images show that the cyclone continues to lack organized convection, and thus no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone. The system is now post tropical, and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial wind speed is 25 kt, perhaps generously, based on continuity. The low should weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to cool waters during the next day or so while it moves slowly northwestward. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 20.9N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 21.4N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-06-30 22:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 302035 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E (EP4/EP042020)
2020-06-30 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 the center of Four-E was located near 20.9, -112.9 with movement NW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 4
2020-06-30 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 302034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042020 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 112.9W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 112.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and the low should degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-06-30 22:34:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 302034 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042020 2100 UTC TUE JUN 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.9W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.9W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 112.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.2N 113.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 21.4N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 112.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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