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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141451 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 86.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been changed to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location. At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north- northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 141451 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 12 9(21) 4(25) 6(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 15 8(23) 3(26) 5(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 22 12(34) 6(40) 6(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 13 10(23) 9(32) 15(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 7(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 10(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 17(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 11 16(27) 13(40) 19(59) 4(63) X(63) X(63) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 22 21(43) 11(54) 13(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) PENSACOLA FL 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 290N 870W 64 5 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 16 37(53) 17(70) 12(82) 3(85) X(85) X(85) MOBILE AL 50 X 9( 9) 14(23) 16(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 20 48(68) 15(83) 7(90) 1(91) 1(92) X(92) GULFPORT MS 50 X 20(20) 21(41) 13(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) GULFPORT MS 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) STENNIS MS 34 12 48(60) 19(79) 7(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) STENNIS MS 50 X 16(16) 19(35) 12(47) 1(48) 1(49) X(49) STENNIS MS 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BURAS LA 34 33 47(80) 7(87) 3(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) BURAS LA 50 2 36(38) 15(53) 4(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) BURAS LA 64 X 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 34 46 27(73) 6(79) 1(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) GFMX 280N 890W 50 4 14(18) 6(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 14(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 39(45) 18(63) 7(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 7( 7) 11(18) 6(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 6 13(19) 7(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 12(15) 11(26) 9(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 12(15) 11(26) 8(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 7( 9) 5(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA NAS 34 60 17(77) 5(82) 4(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) PENSACOLA NAS 50 3 9(12) 7(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) KEESLER AB 34 49 32(81) 9(90) 4(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) KEESLER AB 50 2 27(29) 23(52) 12(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) KEESLER AB 64 X 7( 7) 15(22) 9(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 141451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down several millibars from the first fix on this flight. Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear, warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the circulation will remain over water for some time. Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west- northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models but a little west of the various consensus aids. Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally, the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm surge and freshwater flooding event. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin later today and this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-14 13:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 the center of Sally was located near 28.4, -87.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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