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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 543 WTNT34 KNHC 140254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...SALLY FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 86.2W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward from Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama Border. A Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night, with some additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the warning area beginning Monday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 02:54:19 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 542 WTNT44 KNHC 140254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49 kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity. Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by 72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days. The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-14 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-14 01:53:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOW DOWN... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Sally was located near 27.9, -86.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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