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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-17 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170233 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 Although it remains a prodigious rain producer, surface observations indicate that Sally has weakened to a 30-kt depression over southeastern Alabama. The cyclone will continue to gradually spin down over the southeastern United States, and is likely to become a remnant low pressure system before merging with a frontal zone near North Carolina on Friday. The cyclone is moving northeastward near 8 kt. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected over the next 36 hours or so as the system moves to the south of a broad trough over the northeastern United States. The official track forecast is about in the middle of the model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Significant and widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama, central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. Most widespread moderate to major river flooding will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 32.7N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-17 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY STILL CAUSING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Sally was located near 31.9, -86.1 with movement NE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sally Public Advisory Number 24
2020-09-17 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 279 WTNT34 KNHC 170233 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sally Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...SALLY STILL CAUSING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 86.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line eastward to Indian Pass Florida is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 86.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southeast Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Most moderate to major river flooding will crest by the weekend, but rivers will remain elevated. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several hours. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur overnight across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-17 04:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 281 FONT14 KNHC 170233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 11 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Sally Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-09-17 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 86.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 86.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.7N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 86.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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