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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-09-16 22:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 162040 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WHITING FLD FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-16 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF ALABAMA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 75SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 86.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 86.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-09-16 19:54:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161753 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 87.1W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north- northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, is unfolding. Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals: Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Update Statement
2020-09-16 18:51:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 829 WTNT64 KNHC 161651 TCUAT4 Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...CENTER OF SALLY MOVING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130 km/h) was recently reported at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. This will be the last hourly position update issued on Sally. The intermediate advisory will be issued at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 87.2W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Stevenson
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Summary for Hurricane Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-16 18:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF SALLY MOVING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 12:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 the center of Sally was located near 30.8, -87.2 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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