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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-19 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191450 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 28.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 28.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 30.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 32.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 33.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 35.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 37.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 39.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2021-09-19 11:01:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:01:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Sep 2021 09:28:38 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-19 10:59:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190859 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 The small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past few days has acquired a well-defined circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0000 UTC ASCAT wind data of about 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by consensus Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/12 kt. The small cyclone is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction throughout the remainder of the forecast period as the system moves along the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge that extends westward from Africa across the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed track models. Only modest strengthening is expected during the next 48 hour so while the small cyclone remains over 27-28 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the vertical wind shear decreases to near 5 kt during that time. However, proximity to dry air is expected prevent any significant strengthening from occurring. By late Tuesday, a slow weakening trend is forecast to begin as the system moves over cooler water and the shear increases from the southwest. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models through 72 hours, and then is lower than the HCCA model on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 11.8N 28.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172021)
2021-09-19 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 the center of Seventeen was located near 11.8, -28.2 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Public Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 123 WTNT32 KNHC 190836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 AM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 28.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 28.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected for the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are is expected to become less conducive for development, and the system is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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