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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190836 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 28.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 27.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.4N 29.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 31.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 33.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.7N 34.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 37.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.1N 41.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 28.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-19 10:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 920 FONT12 KNHC 190836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Graphics
2020-09-07 10:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 08:38:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Sep 2020 09:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seventeen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-07 10:37:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070837 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020 Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C. However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance. Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation, strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h, increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification, and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seventeen (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-07 10:36:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 7 the center of Seventeen was located near 17.3, -42.1 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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seventeen