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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-11 09:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 08:58:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Eta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-11-11 09:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Nov 2020 08:58:09 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-11 09:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... As of 4:00 AM EST Wed Nov 11 the center of Eta was located near 25.0, -84.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 44
2020-11-11 09:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2020-11-11 09:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 110857 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 6( 8) 14(22) 5(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 7(10) 20(30) 7(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 3( 4) 20(24) 8(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 13(14) 37(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 7( 9) 26(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 2 27(29) 31(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) THE VILLAGES 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 2 14(16) 22(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 14(18) 9(27) 1(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 4 15(19) 9(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 10(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) W PALM BEACH 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NAPLES FL 34 36 8(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) FT MYERS FL 34 15 13(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) VENICE FL 34 69 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 3 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) VENICE FL 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 28 50(78) 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) TAMPA FL 50 1 25(26) 5(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) TAMPA FL 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 5 47(52) 20(72) 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 12(12) 18(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 3 7(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 12(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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