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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 46

2020-11-11 21:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 83.6W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry Tortugas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported St. Petersburg. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2020-11-11 21:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 112045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 44(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) KINGS BAY GA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 34 7 48(55) 4(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 46(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 37 43(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DAYTONA BEACH 34 8 35(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 64 19(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) THE VILLAGES 50 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) THE VILLAGES 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 15 22(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) COCOA BEACH FL 34 9 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PATRICK AFB 34 9 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CEDAR KEY FL 34 90 4(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CEDAR KEY FL 50 16 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) CEDAR KEY FL 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind storm

Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 45A

2020-11-11 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111758 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km), mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40 mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore Venice Beach. The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm). West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches. North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida. Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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