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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 24
2020-11-06 15:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 061455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 87.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 13:58:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 12:58:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 09:24:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-06 12:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE COAST OF BELIZE... As of 6:00 AM CST Fri Nov 6 the center of Eta was located near 17.5, -87.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-06 09:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 08:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Nov 2020 08:38:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-11-06 09:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060836 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing near and over the center during the past several hours. Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in analyzing the cyclone. The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment, and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days. However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba, and the NHC forecast does the same. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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