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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Nov 5 the center of Eta was located near 15.1, -87.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051450 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 87.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-11-05 15:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 ...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight for portions of these areas. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that, Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-05 09:55:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 08:55:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Nov 2020 09:24:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-11-05 09:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050852 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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