je.st

Home › larry

Tag: larry

Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 080849 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 17(56) X(56) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 72(72) 4(76) X(76) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 4(44) X(44) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 1(45) X(45) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 3(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number speed wind larry

Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)

2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LARGE LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 8 the center of Larry was located near 26.5, -57.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Tags: summary larry hurricane at2al122021

Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 31

2021-09-08 10:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 411 WTNT32 KNHC 080848 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 08 2021 ...LARGE LARRY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...DANGEROUS SWELLS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 57.3W ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 57.3 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed is forecast on Thursday. A faster northeastward motion is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Larry should pass east of Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Larry is expected to remain a hurricane during that time. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Leeward Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas through midweek, and impact Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells from Larry will begin reaching the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada today and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number public larry advisory

Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 31

2021-09-08 10:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 859 WTNT22 KNHC 080848 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 57.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 57.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.0N 58.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.1N 60.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.9N 61.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.7N 61.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.7N 58.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 47.3N 52.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 190SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 58.8N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 65.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 57.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number larry advisory forecast