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Summary for Hurricane Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-07 04:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE FORMIDABLE HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 6 the center of Larry was located near 23.1, -54.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 26
2021-09-07 04:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070247 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 ...LARRY REMAINS A LARGE FORMIDABLE HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 54.4W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Larry. A tropical storm watch could be required for the island tomorrow. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 54.4 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Very gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days. Larry remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Larry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles, portions of the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, and Bermuda through the end of the week. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-09-07 04:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC TUE SEP 07 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LARRY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TOMORROW. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB EYE DIAMETER 45 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 54.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.6N 56.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 29.2N 59.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 55.5N 43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 54.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Graphics
2021-09-06 22:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Sep 2021 20:48:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Sep 2021 20:48:51 GMT
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-09-06 22:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 NOAA aircraft have been investigating Larry for much of this afternoon, providing valuable information regarding the structure and intensity of the hurricane. Peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt with SFMR winds of 101 kt were measured in the northwestern eyewall a couple of hours ago, supporting an intensity of about 100 kt in that portion of the cyclone. During that pass through the hurricane, the aircraft tail Doppler radar measured winds of 121 kt at a height of 3 km in the northeastern eyewall, which equate to about 109 kt at the surface. Therefore, the initial intensity has been adjusted up to 110 kt for this advisory. A pair of dropsondes into the eye of Larry measured a minimum central pressure of 956 mb. Both the aircraft and earlier ASCAT data indicated that hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 n mi from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 n mi from the center. Larry is maintaining its stable, annular structure with a very large, mostly clear eye. The environment surrounding Larry is not forecast to change much over the next couple of days, so only some minor fluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that time. By 72 hours, decreasing sea-surface temperatures and an increase in vertical wind shear should cause the hurricane to begin weakening. The only change to the NHC intensity forecast was a 5-kt increase through the first few days to accommodate the adjustment required to the initial intensity. By the end of the forecast period, Larry is expected to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone. The latest NHC forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, closest to the Decay-SHIPS model. The hurricane continues to move northwest at 9 kt to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence has remained high over the past few days. Larry should continue its northwestward motion through Wednesday, and then reach the western periphery of the ridge in a few days, causing the cyclone to begin a turn to the north, then northeast late this week. This track would bring Larry on its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday. After turning northeast, the cyclone should accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest NHC forecast is little changed from the previous one, and remains near the middle of tightly clustered track guidance. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.5N 53.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 33.1N 61.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 41.2N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 51.7N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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