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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 9A

2018-09-04 19:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 569 WTNT32 KNHC 041746 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 87.3W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.3 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north- central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and early Wednesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected later today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on recent reconnaissance aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Gordon Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2018-09-04 17:29:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 15:29:45 GMT

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Tropical Storm Gordon Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2018-09-04 17:16:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 15:16:26 GMT

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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-09-04 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 541 WTNT42 KNHC 041450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 After an earlier disruption of the inner-core convection due to some southerly wind shear, Gordon has since developed a band of deep convection very near the well-defined center noted in both NOAA GOES-16 high-resolution satellite imagery and coastal NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radars. In addition, there has been a significant increase in lightning activity during the past couple of hours in the inner core, and Doppler radar velocities have increased to more than 45 kt at 25,000 ft in the band of convection near the center. NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft further indicate that Gordon has maintained a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi, and that SFMR surface winds of 53-55 kt exist in the northeastern quadrant. These data support an intensity of 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is now toward the northwest at a slightly slower forward, or 305/13 kt. There is basically no change to the previous NHC forecast track reasoning. Reconnaissance fixes continue to fall along the previous forecast track, and the latest model guidance remains tightly packed and on top of the previous NHC forecast. As a result, there is high confidence that Gordon will make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast in about 18 hours. After landfall, steering currents are forecast to weaken, resulting in Gordon slowing down considerably, which will enhance the heavy rainfall potential. By Friday, an approaching cold front and associated mid-/upper-level trough are expected to break down the subtropical ridge, allowing Gordon to turn northward and eventually turn northeastward on Saturday and merge with the cold front. The new official track forecast is near the model consensus and essentially on top of the previous NHC track. The aforementioned inner-core changes that have been occurring could be a harbinger that Gordon is finally starting to intensify. Intense lightning activity inside the small RMW is an indication of strong updrafts, which can enhance the strengthening process. Although the GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast northwesterly shear of 10-15 kt, the explicit upper-level wind fields in the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models indicate that the 200-mb flow is forecast to become southeasterly and diffluent across Gordon in the next 12 h or so, which would act to enhance the development of inner-core convection. As result, the official intensity forecast maintains continuity and shows Gordon becoming a hurricane before landfall, which is above the guidance through that time. Once Gordon moves inland, the small circulation should spin down fairly quickly, and that portion of the forecast closely follows the various consensus-model intensity guidance. By 120 h, Gordon's circulation is expected to merge with a cold front over the Mississippi Valley region. Key Messages: 1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, much of eastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could reach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding in portions of these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 28.5N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 29.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 31.5N 90.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 32.8N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 92.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 35.4N 94.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 37.7N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 40.9N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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