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Tropical Storm Gordon Graphics
2018-09-04 16:41:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 14:41:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 15:28:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gordon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-09-04 16:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 021 FONT12 KNHC 041438 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 32 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 70 X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 290N 870W 64 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 74 14(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MOBILE AL 50 8 12(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MOBILE AL 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 73 24(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GULFPORT MS 50 7 32(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GULFPORT MS 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 29 52(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) STENNIS MS 50 1 25(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) STENNIS MS 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 7 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 1 26(27) 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Gordon (AT2/AL072018)
2018-09-04 16:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...GORDON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 the center of Gordon was located near 28.5, -86.8 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gordon Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-04 16:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 936 WTNT32 KNHC 041438 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018 ...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...GORDON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 86.8W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Shell Beach to Dauphin Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River * East of Dauphin Island to Navarre A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north- central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and early Wednesday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after Gordon moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. NOAA Buoy 42039, located north of Gordon's center, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft. Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft. Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft. Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to 2 ft. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning area. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gordon Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-09-04 16:37:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 722 WTNT22 KNHC 041437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072018 1500 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SHELL BEACH TO DAUPHIN ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF SHELL BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER * EAST OF DAUPHIN ISLAND TO NAVARRE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS * ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO OKALOOSA-WALTON COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.8N 88.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.8N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.7N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.4N 94.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 37.7N 93.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 40.9N 90.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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