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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Public Advisory Number 17
2018-10-23 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 231432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...VICENTE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 102.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 102.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, bringing the system farther inland over Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente's remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-10-23 16:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231432 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 102.4W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 102.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Vicente Graphics
2018-10-23 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 08:39:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 09:21:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has continued to deteriorate. Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. This motion should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Once inland, the tiny circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous terrain. A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood Vicente will have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230837 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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