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Tropical Storm Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-08-09 10:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 390 FOPZ14 KNHC 090840 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 71(73) 8(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 39(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) 1(47) X(47) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 38(81) X(81) X(81) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 13(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Elida (EP4/EP092020)

2020-08-09 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 the center of Elida was located near 15.8, -104.1 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Elida Public Advisory Number 2

2020-08-09 10:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 303 WTPZ34 KNHC 090840 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elida Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 104.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 104.1 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward heading for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane within the next two days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Elida Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-08-09 10:38:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090838 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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