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Hurricane Elida Graphics
2020-08-11 10:45:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 08:45:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 11 Aug 2020 08:45:46 GMT
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Hurricane Elida Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-11 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110844 TCDEP4 Hurricane Elida Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt. Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory track to the south and the consensus models to the north. Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Elida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-11 10:44:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 110844 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ELIDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Elida (EP4/EP092020)
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 the center of Elida was located near 20.7, -113.0 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Elida Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-11 10:43:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 110843 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Elida Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...ELIDA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 113.0W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elida was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible this morning. Weakening is expected to begin by late afternoon and continue into Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Elida are expected to affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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