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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2016-09-10 01:26:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 092325 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past 24 hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms located just north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico is not showing any signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Due to strong upper-level winds, shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized and is now located farther southeast of an area of low pressure located just south of the lower Florida Keys. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. However, squalls and gusty winds are possible in portions of the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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