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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-02 19:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
484 ABNT20 KNHC 021753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This system is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity but does not have a well-defined surface center. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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