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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-08-11 01:16:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102316 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is beginning to merge with the larger disturbance to its north. Development of this system is becoming less likely. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000 miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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