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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-10-15 19:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151731 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated during the past several hours near an elongated area of low pressure located about 100 miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala tonight, and across southern Mexico on Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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