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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 13:51:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 011151 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles south of Acapulco with disorganized thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within a few days. The disturbance is forecast to meander near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for much of the week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico by this weekend. Regardless of development, this system is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall across portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial rainfall last week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EP96): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure near the Gulf of Tehuantepec have changed little in organization during the past several hours. Although the system does not yet appear to have a well-defined surface circulation, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. This system is forecast to meander near southern coast of Mexico, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible along portions of the coast of southern Mexico and northern Central America throughout this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-01 13:48:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
988 ABNT20 KNHC 011148 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Mora
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-10-01 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 540 WTNT42 KNHC 010845 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that Kirk's structure hasn't changed very much over the past 6 h. The infrared imagery consists of a large comma-shaped area of deep convection. ASCAT data from Monday evening as well as a more recent 01/0416 AMSR2 image indicate that the center is near the northern edge of the convection. The AMSR2 image also indicates that the convective bands haven't become any better organized around the center over the past 6 h. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 56 kt. Given that the highest ASCAT vectors from around 0000 UTC were about 43 kt, and taking into account the recent intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt, which is unchanged from the previous NHC advisory. Kirk is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or so while Kirk moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the middle part of the week, followed by a recurvature to the north over the central Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement for the first couple days of the forecast, with a bit of spread noted thereafter. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous official forecast through 72 h, and west of the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, close to the multi-model consensus aid TVCA. Favorable environmental conditions are forecast to persist along Kirk's path through the next 4 days or so, with warm ocean waters, weak vertical wind shear and a relatively moist and unstable atmosphere. Kirk has a broad structure with a large wind field. The tropical storm force radii are forecast to continue increasing through the forecast period. This structure could limit Kirk's chances for rapid strengthening, despite the favorable environment. Little change has been made to the NHC intensity forecast, which calls for steady strengthening over the next 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance envelope. Kirk is forecast to become a large, major hurricane over the open central Atlantic later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 14.9N 38.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.5N 39.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 16.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.6N 43.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.7N 44.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 45.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 24.2N 49.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 29.0N 49.7W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics