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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-03 07:28:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
133 ABPZ20 KNHC 030528 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern Mexico. Western Portion of the East Pacific: A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric conditions should become less conducive and prevent further development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-03 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:11 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The depression has changed little during the past several hours, and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico. The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of the model solutions. Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics