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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The depression has changed little during the past several hours, and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico. The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of the model solutions. Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112024)
2024-10-03 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.2, -96.7 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Public Advisory Number 6
2024-10-03 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030239 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 96.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn to the north is expected on Thursday with that motion continuing through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall there Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is possible until the system reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics