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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-12 13:29:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121129 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 12 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2024-10-12 10:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 08:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 08:40:51 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 40
2024-10-12 10:39:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120839 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday. Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough before then due to the fast forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
Category: Transportation and Logistics