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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 25
2024-07-04 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042034 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 2100 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 84.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.6N 91.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 93.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 95.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.0N 99.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Aletta Graphics
2024-07-04 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 20:32:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 20:32:38 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Aletta Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-07-04 22:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics