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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-07-01 10:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010859 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over. While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt. A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl's maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely to affect a larger area. The hurricane continues to move at 280/17 kt, but there are signs that a west-northwestward turn is beginning. A faster west-northwestward motion should occur through mid-week due to Beryl encountering stronger low-level flow. The hurricane is forecast to turn more westward beyond that point due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The most notable change in the long-range guidance is that the bulk of the models is showing a stronger ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, which keeps Beryl considerably farther south in those solutions. This is a pretty big change from earlier so I don't want to bite off on that evolution just yet, and the new NHC forecast will just take a step toward the model consensus for continuity purposes. Beryl has a chance today to re-strengthen now that the eyewall cycle is close to completion and the vertical wind shear remains low. Little change was made to the previous forecast in the short term. However, a marked increase in westerly shear is coming in a couple of days as the low-level flow increases and the upper-level flow weakens. This pattern is likely to cause the hurricane to weaken over the central Caribbean, although the guidance is in poor agreement on how much, with the latest cycle showing a weaker Beryl in the western Caribbean. There is quite a disparity in the upper-level pattern shown by the ECMWF and GFS in the long range as Beryl enters the vicinity, so the new forecast is only slightly adjusts downward for 48 hours and beyond, remaining above the model consensus. It is too soon to discuss what could happen with Beryl if it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands this morning. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life- threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning later this morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands today. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will likely be required this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.7N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 12.6N 62.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.9N 66.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 70.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 16.0N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 16.8N 77.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.4N 81.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 18.4N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-01 10:59:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 08:59:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 09:23:03 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-07-01 10:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 010857 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 5(33) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 10(40) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) 3(40) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CURACAO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 9(47) 1(48) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 1(56) X(56) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 55(66) X(66) X(66) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32) X(32) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 3 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT LUCIA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT VINCENT 50 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT VINCENT 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GRENADA 64 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics