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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-07-03 10:54:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030854 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 1(34) X(34) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 58(67) 6(73) X(73) X(73) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 11(11) 14(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 4( 4) 13(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 62(63) 27(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MONTEGO BAY 34 69 29(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MONTEGO BAY 50 4 48(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) MONTEGO BAY 64 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KINGSTON 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGSTON 50 80 6(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) KINGSTON 64 34 8(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LES CAYES 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-03 10:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO IMPACT JAMAICA MIDDAY BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 the center of Beryl was located near 16.6, -74.4 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 19
2024-07-03 10:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030853 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 03 2024 ...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE BERYL EXPECTED TO IMPACT JAMAICA MIDDAY BRINGING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 74.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault * East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the western Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 74.4 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion should continue through today, followed by a turn more toward the west tonight or Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move rapidly across the central Caribbean Sea and is forecast to pass near or over Jamaica later today. The center is expected to pass near or over the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday and move over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or two. However, Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity while it passes near Jamaica later today and the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast of Jamaica within the warning area around midday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the Cayman Islands tonight or early Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength late this afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible along portions of the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as early as late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola today. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the coast of Belize by late Thursday or early Friday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Cayman Islands. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized amounts of 12 inches, across Jamaica through this evening along with additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. This heavy rainfall is expected to cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized maxima of 6 inches over the Cayman Islands tonight into Thursday. Over the Yucatan Peninsula into northern Belize, Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 2 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches, along with at least localized flash flooding, late Thursday through Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are impacting the southern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica and are expected to impact the Cayman Islands later today through midweek. Swell will continue to affect the Windward and Leeward Islands during the next day or so. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics