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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-06-30 11:05:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 300905 CCA TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Corrected for time in Windward Islands in second paragraph Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes rapid intensification. Recent GOES 1-minute satellite imagery shows the development of an eye, with cooling cloud tops in the eyewall and a warming eye. The initial wind speed is set to 85 kt, closest to the CIMSS Satellite Consensus Estimates, and could be too low. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft are en route to get a better estimate of the initial intensity for the next forecast advisory. Now that the core has solidified based on a recent AMSR2 microwave pass, continued rapid intensification looks likely over the next 24 hours while Beryl is over SSTs near 29C and within shear less than 10 kt. There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands. Once Beryl enters the Caribbean, increasing shear will likely cause the hurricane to level off in intensity, then weaken through about midweek. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but the NHC forecast is raised at day 5 as more models are showing lessening shear in the western Caribbean. The hurricane is moving slightly north of due west, estimated at 280/18 kt. There aren't any significant track changes from the previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track, and the NHC track prediction is basically an update of the previous one. This is a very serious situation developing for the Windward Islands, so please listen to your local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands early Monday, bringing destructive hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is expected across the Windward Islands tonight and Monday. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-06-30 10:58:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 08:58:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jun 2024 09:23:00 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-06-30 10:55:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 300855 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 16(50) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 2(54) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 46(62) 1(63) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 7(31) 1(32) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 2( 2) 60(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 4( 4) 86(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 1( 1) 58(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BARBADOS 34 X 41(41) 31(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) BARBADOS 50 X 8( 8) 18(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BARBADOS 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRENADA 34 X 2( 2) 74(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GRENADA 50 X X( X) 48(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GRENADA 64 X X( X) 29(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 8( 8) 38(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics