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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2024-07-01 16:59:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 14:59:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 14:59:28 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-07-01 16:58:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011457 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 Satellite and radar data this morning suggest Beryl has completed an eyewall replacement cycle. Radar images from Barbados show a solid ring of deep convection surrounding the warming, well-defined eye of the hurricane. Data collected by the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters this morning confirm that Beryl has strengthened. Dropsondes indicate the central pressure has fallen to around 956 mb, and the earlier flight-level winds and SFMR data supported an intensity of around 115 kt a couple of hours ago. The hurricane's satellite structure has continued to improve this morning, and recent objective satellite estimates justify raising the initial intensity to 120 kt. The core of the powerful hurricane is nearing Carriacou Island, Grenada, and the Grenadine Islands, where conditions are rapidly deteriorating and residents should take action to protect their lives. Aircraft and radar fixes indicate Beryl has jogged northwestward over the past several hours, and the initial estimated motion is west-northwest or 285/17 kt. The hurricane is currently moving across the southern Windward Islands. A mid-level steering ridge to the north of Beryl should steer the hurricane quickly west-northwestward to westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few days as a mid-level ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This portion of the track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and the NHC forecast remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. At days 3-5, there is some increased spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the consensus aids. Since the eyewall replacement cycle has completed, the updated NHC forecast allows for some additional near-term strengthening based on recent aircraft data and the improved satellite and radar structure of the hurricane. As previously noted, an increase in westerly shear is expected by midweek, which is expected to induce some weakening while Beryl moves across the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is reflected in the latest NHC prediction that follows the multi-model consensus trends. Regardless, Beryl is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane through late this week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. Key Messages: 1. The eyewall of Beryl is moving through the southern Windward Islands. This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Take action now to protect your life! Residents in Grenada, the Grenadine Islands, and Carriacou Island should not leave their shelter as destructive winds and life-threatening storm surge are expected during the next few hours. Shelter in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions and do not venture out in the eye of the storm. 2. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through this afternoon. 3. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Interests in the Cayman Islands, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.4N 61.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 67.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 15.6N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 17.2N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/1200Z 20.5N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-07-01 16:57:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 011457 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 2(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 24(31) X(31) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CURACAO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 4(51) X(51) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 43(59) X(59) X(59) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 26(70) 1(71) X(71) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35) X(35) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 14(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 7(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PONCE PR 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 9 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SAINT VINCENT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT VINCENT 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRENADA 50 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) GRENADA 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JUANGRIEGO 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics