je.st
news
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 27
2024-07-05 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 050846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024 ...HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 86.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal * The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to Campeche A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be issued for that region later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in the next few hours. Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the Yucatan Gulf coast later today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated. Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by Sunday into the coming week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2024-07-05 10:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 050846 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 1(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 7(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) 2(29) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) 2(34) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 8(21) 2(23) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 2(25) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 36(43) 7(50) 1(51) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) 1(22) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 10(26) 1(27) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) 3(40) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 8(43) 2(45) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 40(71) 2(73) 1(74) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 2(38) 1(39) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) 1(16) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 24 54(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) MERIDA MX 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COZUMEL MX 64 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 27
2024-07-05 10:43:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 86.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 86.2W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.7N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.9N 93.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 94.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 96.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.0N 97.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 98.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 86.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Category: Transportation and Logistics