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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 8
2024-06-30 16:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 301445 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 ...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Trinidad has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Trinidad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada * Tobago A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Trinidad A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 54.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A continued quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl is expected to move across the Windward Islands Monday morning and across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Beryl is expected to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area beginning early Monday morning. Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where the eyewall of Beryl moves through portions of the Windward Islands, with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area starting late tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area starting late tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands through Monday. Localized maxima of 10 inches is possible, especially in the Grenadines. This rainfall may cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are expected across Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2024-06-30 16:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 301445 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 6(49) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 29(52) X(52) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 21(63) X(63) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 17(33) X(33) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) X(48) X(48) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 2 41(43) 16(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT LUCIA 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 2 74(76) 14(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) SAINT VINCENT 50 X 29(29) 21(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT VINCENT 64 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BARBADOS 34 2 68(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) BARBADOS 50 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARBADOS 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 1 76(77) 18(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GRENADA 50 X 34(34) 42(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GRENADA 64 X 14(14) 37(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 2 77(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X 39(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT OF SPAIN 34 1 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 8
2024-06-30 16:44:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 301444 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SUN JUN 30 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.9W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 54.9W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.7N 54.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category: Transportation and Logistics