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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2024-07-02 10:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 020856 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0900 UTC TUE JUL 02 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 9(54) X(54) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) X(23) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) 1(27) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 2(28) X(28) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 49(52) 26(78) X(78) X(78) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) X(44) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 56(57) 30(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 18(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGSTON 34 X 3( 3) 86(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 60(60) 10(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) 37(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LES CAYES 34 X 24(24) 18(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LES CAYES 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 25(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 3 63(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CAPE BEATA 50 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE BEATA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-07-02 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2 the center of Beryl was located near 14.6, -66.9 with movement WNW at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 15
2024-07-02 10:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Tue Jul 02 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 66.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch for all of the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti * South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d'Hainault A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 66.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is forecast to continue moving rapidly west-northwestward during the next couple of days and turn westward by Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move quickly across the southeastern and central Caribbean Sea today and is forecast to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Beryl is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening should begin later today, but Beryl is still expected to be near major hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes near Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday. Additional weakening is expected thereafter, though Beryl is forecast to remain a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast on Jamaica within the warning area on Wednesday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength early on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the south coast of Hispaniola later today. Hurricane conditions could begin on Thursday across the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of Jamaica. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Hurricane Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with localized maxima of 12 inches, across Jamaica on Wednesday. This rainfall is likely to cause flash flooding. Rainfall from outer bands of Beryl should impact mainly southern portions of Hispaniola today into Wednesday, with 2 to 6 inches of rain possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl will continue across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Swells are also expected to reach the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics