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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-06-13 16:55:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131455 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015 Satellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged eye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery. In addition, radar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become established, although it is still open on the north side. Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial intensity. After an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a northwestward drift. For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge over Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the west-northwest. Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja California peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward. However, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected yesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Track guidance has been steadily shifting eastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While I am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has been shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico. Accordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast. Since Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with decreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will occur over the next day or so. However, there is very poor agreement on what will occur after that time due to competing atmospheric factors and possible land interaction. The new NHC forecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from the previous one. It is worth noting that the normally conservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction. With Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on record that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern Pacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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