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Hurricane CARLOS Public Advisory Number 22
2015-06-16 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160231 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 ...CARLOS A COMPACT HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 103.5W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Interests elsewhere along the southwest coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Carlos. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 103.5 West. Carlos is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected on Tuesday followed by a north- northwestward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, Carlos will move parallel to and just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico over the next day or two. However, only a small deviation to the north of the forecast track could bring the core of the hurricane to the coastline. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Carlos remains a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight through Tuesday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa with rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible through Thursday morning, and maximum totals of 15 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. SURF: Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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