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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-07-13 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132034 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015 Dolores is strengthening. Visible satellite imagery shows the inner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged eye has become evident during the past few hours. There is also a long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation. The upper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely the result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with a trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from SAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial intensity to 65 kt. Recent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased considerably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is 295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical ridge over the south-central United States, which should result in continued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward speed. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how much. These models and the remaining model suite have track solutions that are significantly divergent late in the period, and the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the multi-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and GFS. The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the forecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance. Nearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface temperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the near-storm environment should promote further strengthening. Only some west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Dolores seems poised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially intensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive environmental factors. A gradual spin-down of the vortex is forecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters and a drier and more stable atmosphere. The statistical guidance has responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores reaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the official forecast follows suit. The official forecast continues to be above the multi-model intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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