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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-14 22:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142047 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Dolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible imagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than -80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates and a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. While the hurricane has good cirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery suggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern semicircle, possibly to near the eyewall. The initial motion is now 295/6. The hurricane is currently being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the next 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster toward the west-northwest. After that time, the ridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of California. This evolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours. There is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour period, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus models showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF. This part of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus. Dolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so in an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. However, the dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether rapid intensification will occur. The new intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it is possible this part of the forecast is conservative. After 36-48 hours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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