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Hurricane DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-07-15 16:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151432 TCDEP5 HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015 Dolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming of the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since the last advisory. Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt based on the CI numbers. Low vertical wind shear and very warm ocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4 hurricane during this period. Weakening is expected after 24 hours, predominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN consensus thereafter. As will be discussed below, Dolores's forecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the cyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed weakening. Dolores's eye wobbled westward recently, but a longer-term motion is 290/5 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico should propel Dolores west-northwestward or even westward during the next 72 hours. After that time, there are some model differences regarding the strength of the ridge and whether Dolores will turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period. At the extremes, the GFS maintains a strong ridge and keeps Dolores to the south, while the ECMWF weakens the ridge off the California coast and allows Dolores to turn northward. Despite these differences, the overall guidance envelope has continued to shift southward, and the updated NHC track forecast follows that trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.4N 110.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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