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Hurricane EARL Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-04 10:54:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040854 TCDAT5 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016 The center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City, Belize near 0600 UTC. The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central pressure near 979 mb. Based on these data, the landfall intensity is estimated to have been 70 kt. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land. The initial motion is 275/13. A high pressure ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three days or so. There is some spread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of the system emerging over the Bay of Campeche. The ECMWF and the GFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over water. The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the center over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche. The new forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the center traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours. Overall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies near the various consensus models. Earl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it is expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. The cyclone is forecast to spend less than 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no re-intensification during that time. After 48 hours, Earl or its remnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which should cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours. It should be noted that several global models forecast the development of a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the next five days. If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with the remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of Earl. The biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days. This weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.3N 88.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 17.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 18.3N 92.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 18.6N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/0600Z 19.5N 99.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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