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Hurricane FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-07-15 22:34:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017 A recent AMSU pass indicates that Fernanda continues to have a double eyewall structure, with the inner eye about 20 n mi in diameter and the outer eye about 60 n mi across. The appearance of Fernanda in geostationary satellite images remains impressive with a small distinct eye surrounding by a ring of cold cloud tops. The cold cloud tops, however, are not quite as expansive as they were earlier. Accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly and range from 105 to 125 kt, and based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 115 kt. It should be noted that it is common for hurricanes that undergo eyewall replacement cycles (ERC) to weaken during the beginning of the process. Assuming the ERC completes, Fernanda has an opportunity to restrengthen during the next day or so while it remains in favorable atmospheric conditions and over warm water. After that time, steady, or even rapid, weakening is expected as the hurricane moves over cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass. An increase in southwesterly shear should aid in the weakening process toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end, or slightly above, the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the intensity model consensus after that. This forecast is a tad lower than the previous one. A mid-level ridge located over the western United States is steering Fernanda westward, or 280 degrees, at 11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue for the next several days while the hurricane moves toward a weakness at the western periphery of the ridge. The track models remain in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 11.4N 124.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 11.9N 125.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 12.7N 128.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.4N 130.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 14.1N 132.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 15.7N 135.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 16.8N 138.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.3N 141.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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