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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 9
2024-11-15 21:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Satellite images depict a large convective band to the northwest of the center of Sara, which has been meandering just offshore between the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands. The current intensity is uncertain. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, though there was a recent partial scatterometer pass around 1430 UTC that depicted winds only around 30-33 kt in the northeastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which may be generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this evening which will help better determine the structure and intensity of the system. Sara's forward motion has become sluggish today with a slow westward motion, estimated at 270/2 kt. This slow motion is anticipated to continue over the next 12 to 24 h. Afterwards, the mid-level ridge which has been steering Sara is forecast to shift northeastward, and Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward motion later this weekend. Along the forecast track, the center of Sara is forecast to move through the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The NHC forecast track is near the previous, with a slightly slower forward motion in the near term. The intensity forecast is largely dependent on the land interaction with Central America. The model trends and the track forecast keep the system's center just offshore through landfall in Belize, thus the latest NHC shows some slight strengthening. After landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly. The current NHC forecast shows the system as a remnant low in the Bay of Campeche, however it is possible the system dissipates over the Yucatan peninsula sooner than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the consensus aids. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.2N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 16.2N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 16.4N 86.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.8N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.2N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0600Z 18.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1800Z 19.9N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-15 21:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 PM CST Fri Nov 15 the center of Sara was located near 16.2, -86.2 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 9
2024-11-15 21:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA SLUGGISHLY MEANDERING NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 86.2W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from the Nicaragua/Honduras Border westward to Punta Patuca. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal. The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City northward to Chetumal. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border. * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as long as the system remains offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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