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Hurricane FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-17 04:33:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017 Fernanda's eye has become less distinct, although the overall cloud pattern remains quite symmetric and the central cloud tops have not warmed significantly so far. The current intensity is set to 105 kt which is a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and ADT values from UW/CIMSS. Sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane will should be slowly cooling over the next few days and, later in the forecast period, west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase. Therefore gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days followed by a more rapid decline thereafter. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus through 48 hours and very close to it in 3-5 days. The initial motion estimate, 290/10 kt, is not much different from earlier today. Fernanda is expected to approach the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the United States. This should cause the tropical cyclone to slow down and turn a little to the right. In 4-5 days the global models show a ridge building to the north of Fernanda and this is likely to cause a turn toward the west around that time. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 13.0N 129.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 13.7N 130.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 14.6N 132.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 15.5N 133.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.3N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.3N 137.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.8N 140.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 18.3N 144.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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