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Hurricane FERNANDA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2017-07-18 04:40:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180240 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017 Conventional satellite and two earlier GMI and GCOM-W1 microwave images indicate partial erosion in the southeast quadrant of the eyewall. Inner core cloud top temperatures have warmed, particularly over the aforementioned quadrant and in the western portion. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates yields a lowered initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. Continued gradual weakening is forecast through the forecast period due to the cyclone traversing cooler oceanic SSTs and moving into a more stable and drier air mass with increasing vertical shear. The official forecast has been adjusted down a bit from the previous forecast based on the lowered initial intensity and follows the IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt. Global models show a large amplitude mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough situated to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands lifting northeastward around the 48-hour period, allowing the subtropical ridge to the north of Fernanda to rebuild westward. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest and continue in this motion through day 5. The NHC forecast track is adjusted to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3 and is in between the GFS/ECMWF blend and the TVCN consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 14.7N 132.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 15.4N 133.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.2N 134.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 135.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 136.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 18.0N 139.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 18.6N 142.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 19.3N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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