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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-07-14 16:36:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141436 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 The satellite presentation of Fernanda continues to improve. An eye has been apparent in shortwave and longwave IR imagery for the past several hours. An AMSR-2 overpass around 0843 UTC showed a well defined eye structure, completely surrounded by deep convection. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers at 1200 UTC increased to 5.0 from TAFB and 5.5 from SAB, and since that time the cloud top structure has improved a little more. On that basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 100 kt, making Fernanda the second major hurricane of the 2017 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Fernanda remains in a very favorable environment for intensification. The cyclone's intensity has increased by 40 kt in the past 24 hours and there are no current indications that the period of rapid intensification has ended. In fact, according to the SHIPS diagnostics, the hurricane is now approaching an area of higher ocean heat content. Surprisingly, most of the guidance shows relatively little increase in intensity during the next 48 hours. Considering that most of the guidance has thus far shown not nearly the extent of intensification that has been observed, the NHC forecast remains well above the guidance. The NHC forecast has been adjusted substantially higher for the first 36 hours to account for the higher initial intensity, but is closer to the previous forecast after that. Beyond 48 hours, lower SSTs along the forecast track and a drier environment should lead to a gradual weakening. The hurricane is continuing its steady westward track and the initial motion estimate is 265/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning, and confidence in the track forecast remains high due to a tight clustering of the model tracks. Fernanda is still expected to move generally westward for the next day or so, before turning toward the west-northwest due to a weakening of the ridge to the north. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, which remains very close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 10.9N 118.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 10.9N 120.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 11.3N 122.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 11.8N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 12.5N 127.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 13.8N 131.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 15.0N 135.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 16.3N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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