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Hurricane Fernanda Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-07-14 22:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142033 TCDEP1 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017 Fernanda's satellite presentation has become even more impressive than earlier today, with the eye becoming more distinct on geostationary and microwave imagery. The upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants, with a fairly symmetric CDO. There are also banding features over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are near 6.0 corresponding to an intensity of 115 kt, and that value will be used for the advisory intensity. It may be of interest that it is quite unusual to have a hurricane this strong so far south in the eastern North Pacific basin. Fernanda will remain in a low-shear environment for the next few days, with high oceanic heat content. Based on the trends over the past 24 hours, the official intensity forecast is above most of the numerical guidance. One complication to the forecast is the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is not accounted for here. Late in the forecast period somewhat cooler waters and, by day 5, some increase in shear should cause weakening. The initial motion remains near 265/10 kt. There has not been much change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous couple of advisories. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Fernanda should induce a westward to west-northwestward track for the next several days. Some decrease in forward speed is likely later in the period when the tropical cyclone nears a weakness or col region of the ridge. The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 10.7N 119.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 11.3N 123.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 11.9N 126.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 12.5N 128.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 15.4N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 16.5N 139.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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